Time Series Model building for production site data

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Hello! I'm trying to build a predictive model for work. The model should predict the number of orders that'll be delayed. The data is from a production site. Delay means if the time taken to produce an order takes more than target cycle time. And there are hundreds of order in a day with different target ct and elapsed time. Now, these are the two fields I have in database, target ct and elapsed time. But the way I'm predicting till now is from a data that comes from a dashboard (Qlik). Qlik expression (If Elapsed time/Target CT >1 then lagging flag =1, order is delayed) calculates if an order is delayed and then sum all the orders for the day. So, from qlik data, I have two columns, Date and number of delayed orders for that day. I have only tried building Arima models from the qlik data and forecasting is not accurate at all. I'm using JMP btw, since qlik data wasn't that huge.

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